Weekly Power and Local weather Information Roundup #426

The Week That Was: 2020-10-10 (October 10, 2020)

Delivered to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)

The Science and Environmental Coverage Mission

Quote of the Week: “For a profitable know-how, actuality should take priority over public relations, for nature can’t be fooled.”— Richard Feynman, Theoretical physicist, co-recipient Nobel Prize in Physics.

Variety of the Week: US$Three,660 billion [$3.66 Trillion]


By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Mission (SEPP)

Guess and Take a look at – and Re-Take a look at: Writing within the Wall Avenue Journal, journalist Matt Ridley, creator of books comparable to How Innovation Works: And Why It Prospers in Freedom (2020) and The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves (2010), had an excellent, lengthy essay titled:

“What the Pandemic Has Taught Us About Science

“The scientific methodology stays the easiest way to unravel many issues, however bias, overconfidence and politics can generally lead scientists astray.”

The essay opens with:

“The Covid-19 pandemic has stretched the bond between the general public and the scientific career as by no means earlier than. Scientists have been revealed to be neither omniscient demigods whose opinions robotically outweigh all political disagreement, nor unscrupulous fraudsters pursuing a political agenda underneath a cloak of impartiality. Someplace between the 2 lies the reality: Science is a flawed and all too human affair, however it may generate timeless truths, and dependable sensible steerage, in a means that different approaches can not.

“In a lecture at Cornell College in 1964, the physicist Richard Feynman outlined the scientific methodology. First, you guess, he stated, to a ripple of laughter. You then compute the implications of your guess. You then examine these penalties with the proof from observations or experiments. ‘If [your guess] disagrees with experiment, it’s fallacious. In that easy assertion is the important thing to science. It doesn’t make a distinction how lovely the guess is, how sensible you might be, who made the guess or what his title is…it’s fallacious.’

“So, when folks began falling ailing final winter with a respiratory sickness, some scientists guessed that a novel coronavirus was accountable. The proof proved them proper. Some guessed it had come from an animal offered within the Wuhan wildlife market. The proof proved them fallacious. Some guessed vaccines might be developed that will forestall an infection. The jury continues to be out.

“Seeing science as a recreation of guess-and-test clarifies what has been taking place these previous months. Science will not be about announcing with certainty on the identified details of the world; it’s about exploring the unknown by testing guesses, a few of which show fallacious.

“Typically, science is significantly better at telling you concerning the previous and the current than the long run.

Unhealthy observe can corrupt all levels of the method. Some scientists fall so in love with their guesses that they fail to check them in opposition to proof. They only compute the implications and cease there. Mathematical fashions are elaborate, formal guesses, and there was a disturbing tendency in recent times to explain their output with phrases like knowledge, end result, or final result. They’re nothing of the type.”

The essay is strongly endorsed by Judith Curry who posted giant sections on her site, which has been re-posted by Charles Rotter on Watts Up With That. Since it’s available, TWTW is not going to focus on it extensively. Ridley summed an essential level with:

“This yr has pushed residence as by no means earlier than the message that there is no such thing as a such factor as ‘the science’; there are totally different scientific views.”

The Proper Local weather Stuff Group emphasised the significance of what they realized within the Apollo Missions – the necessity to check and re-test assumptions (guesses) notably as new knowledge emerges. Sadly, many as soon as rigorous scientific organizations and authorities businesses are so entrenched with their groupthink and so beholden to their political sponsors, that TWTW believes that the title of Ridley’s essay is just too optimistic. It ought to learn:

What the Pandemic Has Taught Us about Science, however Bureaucratic Scientists Will Not Be taught.

See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.


Groupthink and Local weather Change: In discussing the brand new e book Local weather Change: The Details 2020 which she co-edited with Peter Ridd, Australian Jennifer Marohasy provides an excellent instance of bureaucratic groupthink that stops many authorities sponsored scientists from exploring new concepts and accurately using the scientific methodology. [Physicist Peter Ridd was dismissed from his position at James Cook University for challenging the claims that the Great Barrier Reef was dying.] Marohasy writes in her weblog:

“I met with Oscar Alves, who heads the crew on the Australian Bureau that’s meant to be creating strategies for seasonal rainfall prediction. That was again in August 2011, after I was so excited concerning the potential to forecast month-to-month rainfall utilizing AI. [Artificial Intelligence]

“Oscar Alves advised me that correct month-to-month rainfall forecasting is actually not possible, and that he wasn’t excited about AI as a result of it could require him to study one thing new. We actually are a civilization in decline within the West, and our authorities bureaucracies promote meteorologists primarily based on their attachment to carbon dioxide quite than their enthusiasm for correct and skillful climate and local weather forecasts. This isn’t the scenario in any respect in international locations like Indonesia and China the place they know that carbon dioxide is generally irrelevant.

“Oscar Alves’s boss, Andrew Johnson, the present head of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, appears to know little or no about arithmetic or meteorology. On the latest Royal Fee into bushfires the place Andrew Johnson was an knowledgeable witness, he commented that elements of Australia had skilled a speedy decline in rainfall. We would assume he was referring to the south-east of Australia as a result of huge areas of Eucalyptus forest burnt within the south-east this final summer season. But if we contemplate the official statistics from his personal workplace, from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, for this area, we see that annual rainfall is variable and that whereas the 1950s and 1970s had been wetter than latest years – there is no such thing as a proof of long-term decline in rainfall. In truth, whichever means the statistics are scrutinised, there is no such thing as a proof for a decline in rainfall – within the south-east of Australia, for the summer season interval, and even contemplating the info for all of Australia for all months since 1900. That is defined by me in chapter 15, that’s concerning the historical past of bushfires in Australia since 1851.”

To many bureaucrats it’s a lot simpler accountable carbon dioxide (CO2) than to study new strategies and arithmetic. In describing the overview of the e book (abbreviated as CCTF2020) by Graham Lloyd in The Weekend Australian, Marohasy writes:

“Graham Lloyd has learn the e book – all 20 chapters – and he understands the significance of the three chapters by the atmospheric physicists Richard Lindzen, Henrik Svensmark and Peter Ridd. Graham understands that they supply a brand new perspective on established analysis that has been troublesome for the mainstream local weather change institution to know, not to mention settle for.

“Graham Lloyd, he understands that Peter Ridd’s essential chapter in CCTF2020 builds on the pioneering work of Joanne Simpson, and that Richard Lindzen destroyed the exhausting core of Catastrophic Anthropogenic International Warming (CAGW) principle twenty years in the past; that was in Lindzen’s seminal paper on the connection between excessive altitude cirrus cloud cowl and carbon dioxide. There isn’t any function for carbon dioxide in Henrick Svensmark’s principle of how the local weather adjustments (chapter 10), and Svensmark, like Lindzen, is obsessive about clouds.

“In CCTF2020 Richard Lindzen writes about cirrus clouds, Henrik Svensmark about cumulus clouds, and the chapter by Peter Ridd is all about my favorite clouds that are cumulonimbus. Peter Ridd and I are each from tropical Australia and we love the drama of watching thunderstorms. [Caption under a diagram of various types of clouds.]

“I’ve been saying for therefore lengthy now that it’s not ok to simply disprove CAGW principle, we have to have another principle. I’m hoping that CCTF2020 is the start of some public dialogue about this. Geoffrey Duffy’s chapter on water vapour (chapter 11) can be essential when it comes to understanding the fundamentals of climate and local weather on planet Earth.

“The historical past of science means that new theories are often supported by new instruments. (Galileo and Kepler, for instance, had been obsessive about telescopes.)”

The time period “obsessed” could also be a bit robust, however it’s actually clear the present local weather fashions are failing to explain what is going on within the ambiance, thus are unsuitable for long-term forecasts. Marohasy emphasizes that the Chinese language and Indonesian meteorologists are utilizing synthetic intelligence and arithmetic to explain the idea of cycles to additional advance climate and local weather prediction. See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.


No Such Factor: In keeping with its site:

“The Heart for Environmental Analysis and Earth Sciences (CERES) is a multi-disciplinary and impartial analysis group. The goals of CERES are to deal with essential points within the fields of environmental and earth sciences.  The group strives to foster unique and well timed scientific understanding, along with re-examining previous analyses with contemporary insights.  We hope to light up, improve, and resolve new and open points.”

The journal Energies simply revealed an analysis of world local weather expenditures protecting 2011 to 2018 written by members of CERES and different researchers. Primarily based on numbers equipped by CERES, from 2011 to 2018, the world spent over $2 Trillion on wind and solar energy and solely one-tenth that on adapting to excessive climate occasions, which have been occurring earlier than the evolution of people.

In an essay posted on its site, CERES states there is no such thing as a such factor as clear power and the essay goes by a number of the issues created by governments trying to shift from dependable sources of electrical energy to unreliable photo voltaic, wind and different sorts. This big effort is hurting the poor probably the most. These damages are largely ignored by those that calculate the deceptive statistic, the social value of carbon. See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy and https://www.ceres-science.com/index.html


Are US Blackouts Inevitable? Final week, TWTW mentioned one of many nice myths of economics: that in The Wealth of Nations Adam Smith defended capitalism. The time period was not invented till 90 years later by Karl Marx. As a substitute, Adam Smith attacked an financial system prevailing in Western Europe. The assumption that nations can turn into rich by favoring some retailers and producers over others – primarily by selling exports and taxing imports. As a substitute, Smith argued that such insurance policies enrich the few on the expense of the various. Smith argued that competitors, irrespective of how disruptive it’s, advantages most people as a result of it regularly supplies extra items at decrease prices.

Over 150 years later Austrian – American economist Joseph Schumpeter known as this dynamic course of “inventive destruction,” how the brand new is continually changing the previous. Financial progress will not be gradual and peaceable, however generally disjointed and unsightly. Schumpeter addressed the notion that competitors results in monopoly and oligopoly (just a few producers working collectively). In keeping with Schumpeter, with inventive destruction these monopolies and oligopolies are short-term, industrial companies can not survive until they proceed to innovate. The turmoil within the Dow Jones industrials illustrates this: the place is Xerox as we speak?

With an extended profession in Normal Electrical, Donn Dears has addressed lots of the key points in electrical energy era, transmission, and use (consumption). As such, he understands what is required “behind the wall” for a change to activate the lights – data severely missing by many who want to change our power future. In 2015, Dears wrote “Nothing to Worry: A Brilliant Future for Fossil Fuels – The story of fossil fuels and local weather change.”

Now, Dears states there’s something to worry – how politicians and others who misunderstand the function of carbon dioxide and the greenhouse impact in local weather change are damaging our power future. In his new e book, “The Looming Power Disaster: Are Blackouts Inevitable?” Dears explains how politicians and bureaucrats, both knowingly or unknowingly, are altering the electrical grid in methods harmful to the dependable provide of electrical energy. The blackouts skilled in California and South Australia are an instance of what’s coming. A secondary title to the e book might be: How Public Subsidies Are Rising the Prices of Electrical energy to the Public.

After a overview of the US electrical energy system, with elements underneath the management of Federal regulators and elements impartial of them apart from interstate transmission, Dears describes how regulators are altering the public sale system to favor wind and solar energy [the following will focus on wind]. These alterations are along with the mandates by some states that utilities should take wind energy underneath the false notion it’s “clear.”

The elements instantly underneath management of the Federal Power Regulatory Fee (FERC) are the areas underneath a regional transmission group (RTO) or impartial techniques operator (ISO) to coordinate regional transmission of energy – the Grid. States that aren’t in an ISO or RTO are instantly managed by their state utility regulators. Sadly, FERC has politically motivated commissioners who put their ideological beliefs above the duty to ship secure, dependable energy at lowest potential value to the general public.

As uncovered by Dears, there are a number of main weaknesses within the system: 1) day by day auctions utilizing a market clearing value and a couple of) no assure of future supply. The day by day auctions sound aggressive, however one should understand that the main prices of wind, the capital prices, are sponsored by the Federal authorities, the general public. So long as the wind is blowing and the climate is okay, there may be little value related to wind delivering energy. Counting on day by day climate forecasts, industrial wind organizations can bid extraordinarily low to ship energy for the following day.

The rub is that industrial wind will obtain the very best value the system operator (ISO or RTO) determines essential to clear the market, the market clearing value. That value is set by the final bidder wanted to supply the electrical energy wanted for the next day, which is often the very best value accepted by the system operator. Thus, that value might be way over industrial wind must earn an affordable revenue. Some economists would label the distinction as “surplus earnings” or “unfair earnings.”

If the forecast is not any wind or an excessive amount of wind for the following day, industrial wind is not going to bid and the patron is out of luck. The ISO or RTO should get hold of what electrical energy could also be obtainable for the day no matter the fee. The online impact is that industrial wind is low bidding when climate is favorable, and driving out dependable sources of electrical energy, whereas making main, sponsored earnings. Additional, industrial wind will not be required to supply wanted backup or storage if the wind fails. Lately, comparable issues arose in California with solar energy, which can not ship when the solar goes down. Primarily, the public sale market as now executed leads to dependable producers priced out when climate if favorable for wind, and far wanted dependable producers should bid a lot increased costs to maintain working when climate is unfavorable for wind. The general public doesn’t profit from favorable climate and is punished from poor climate.

These versed in Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations could say that the system is a kind of Mercantilism, the place these chargeable for regulation manipulate the system in favor of sure industries. It doesn’t meet Schumpeter’s idea of inventive destruction as a result of the inventive half will not be there. There isn’t any actual inventive innovation in wind energy besides larger – extra uncommon earths, extra carbon fiber for blades, extra concrete and metal for foundations, and many others. See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy, Speaking Higher to the Public – Make issues up, and Different, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Photo voltaic and Wind.


Greening of Africa: By ever increasing the projected improve in temperatures from rising CO2, local weather modelers and plenty of local weather “specialists” have demonstrated that they don’t perceive the altering Greenhouse Impact, which might be described by a logarithmic operate relating focus of a greenhouse gasoline with temperature. One can crudely generalize and say it’s self-limiting – rising focus leads to lessening influence of the final quantities.

Equally, it seems that many modelers who calculate the “social prices of carbon” don’t perceive photosynthesis and the significance of carbon dioxide in inflicting plants to flourish. CO2 Science presents a brand new report on change in African Vegetation since 1982:

“And so it’s that, regardless of rising in inhabitants by 850 million individuals and being subjected to the various ecosystem pressures a inhabitants improve of that measurement may cause, and however quite a few ominous climate-related projections of ecosystem demise from international warming, throughout giant areas of Africa vegetative productiveness as we speak has reached the very best values ever noticed within the satellite tv for pc file. And this nice greening of Africa has largely been led to by the very issue alarmists say must be inflicting a demise — rising atmospheric CO2!”

See hyperlinks underneath Evaluate of Latest Scientific Articles by CO2 Science


Variety of the Week: US $Three,660 billion [$3.66 Trillion]: The above described report by The Heart for Environmental Analysis and Earth Sciences (CERES) incorporates the assertion:

“The world spent US $Three,660 billion on local weather change tasks over the eight-year interval 2011–2018. A complete of 55% of this sum was spent on photo voltaic and wind power, whereas solely 5% was spent on adapting to the impacts of maximum climate occasions.”

See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

Science: Is the Solar Rising?

The dimmest state of the Solar: TSI and International warming

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 6, 2020

Hyperlink to paper: the dimmest state of the Solar

By Okay.L. Yeo, et al, Geophical Analysis Letters, Accepted

From Watts: “This new paper raises some questions concerning the function of whole photo voltaic irradiance (TSI) and international warming…”

Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019

Obtain with no cost:

Why Scientists Disagree About International Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

Obtain with no cost:


Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

International Sea-Degree Rise: An Analysis of the Knowledge

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Transient, Could 20, 2019

Difficult the Orthodoxy

What the pandemic has taught us about science

By Judith Curry, Local weather And many others. Oct 10, 2020

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