Weekly Local weather and Vitality Information Roundup #421

The Week That Was: 2020-08-29 (August 29, 2020)

Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)

The Science and Environmental Coverage Venture

Quote of the Week: “In as far as a scientific assertion speaks about actuality, it should be falsifiable: and in as far as it isn’t falsifiable, it doesn’t discuss actuality.” – Karl Popper

Variety of the Week: 50%

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Venture (SEPP)

Standard Delusions: Final week, TWTW mentioned the issue of the California Blackouts (additionally known as greenouts) and the failure of California politicians to correctly put together for the easy incontrovertible fact that because the solar goes down Photoelectric Energy declines and different means of electrical energy technology should be elevated considerably (ramped-up). The state structure locations the last word duty on the legislature.

The TWTW mentioned a lecture “The Vitality Storage Delusion” given by physics Professor emeritus Howard Hayden on the annual assembly of the Docs for Catastrophe Preparedness (DDP). The one storage system confirmed on a utility scale is pumped-hydro storage. There isn’t a proof of idea that wind and photo voltaic can replenish pumped-hydro or some other utility scale storage system in a well timed method. The biggest pumped-hydro system on the earth, Bathtub County (Virginia) Pumped Storage Station is replenished by nuclear and coal-fired energy vegetation and is used for peak shaving (producing energy on the time of day it’s wanted essentially the most). It may run at peak capability for under three hours, then declines to zero in eleven hours.

The assembly at which Hayden spoke, addressed many points which may be thought-about common delusions. In her welcoming handle DDP President Jane Orient, M.D., mentioned a few of them and former lecturers who previously graced DDP conferences together with Edward Teller and the late SEPP Chairman Fred Singer. For this assembly lots of the talks associated to COVID-19. See hyperlink underneath Science, Coverage, and Proof.

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Frequent Sense: In his speak to DDP, Physicist William Happer targeted on widespread sense. Happer is an authority on Atomic, Molecular, and Optical Physics (AMO) together with spectroscopy which is the research of the interplay between matter and electromagnetic radiation because it varies with wavelength (frequency). This supplies the idea for understanding the greenhouse impact, significantly the way it might improve as extra greenhouse gases are added to the environment. Sadly, many “consultants” on local weather ignore this self-discipline. Amazingly, some commentators and reporters have criticized Happer by saying he isn’t a local weather scientist.

In his speak, Happer states that widespread sense has submerged within the fury of the day. He cites the farewell handle by President Eisenhower who acknowledged concern not solely that public coverage will likely be overtaken by the military-industrial complicated; however, as importantly, captured by a scientific technological elite. This can be taking place immediately.

“In interesting to widespread sense, Happer quotes William Pitt the Elder (1708 to 1778) who supported the American Revolution and for whom Pittsburgh is called (urged by historian John Robson):

“THERE is one plain maxim, to which I’ve invariably adhered by means of life; that in each query, through which my liberty or my property have been involved, I ought to seek the advice of and be decided by the dictates of widespread sense.

“I confess, my lords, that I’m apt to mistrust the refinements of studying, as a result of I’ve seen the ablest and essentially the most discovered males equally liable to deceive themselves and to mislead others.

“The situation of human nature can be lamentable certainly, if nothing lower than the best studying and abilities, which fall to the share of so small a lot of males, have been enough to direct our judgment and our conduct.

“However windfall has taken higher care of our happiness, and given us, within the simplicity of widespread sense, a rule for our path, by which we by no means shall be misled.”

https://englishlanguageandhistory.com/?id=william-pitt-elder-common-sense

Happer makes use of graphs from the Facilities for Illness Management (CDC) to exhibit that within the US about 50,000 to 60,000 die every week, extra within the winter than in the summertime, and there haven’t been many extra deaths from COVID-19 than occur in a foul flu 12 months. Additional, loss of life charges are strongly separated by age teams with folks dying from COVID-19 predominately over the age of 65.

Happer goes on to say that hysteria over local weather, COVID, the cancel tradition, and so forth. are up to date examples of a human failing described within the “Extraordinary Standard Delusion and the Insanity of Crowds” by Charles MacKay (1841). Additionally, there’s nothing new about saving the planet. The Bible mentions Baal, who managed agriculture. The Aztecs sacrificed 1000’s of slaves captured from native tribes to appease the gods and hold the top of the world at bay. Reverend George Burroughs was hanged on the Salem Witch Trials, on a choice by judges educated at Harvard as a result of he was not a correct minister.

About 30 minutes into the lecture Happer discusses what could also be of explicit curiosity to TWTW readers. He presents the work of Karl Schwarzschild and Max Plank. Plank devised a easy curve exhibiting depth of outgoing radiation as a perform of wavelength. (This work led to quantum mechanics.) The curve, known as black physique radiation, shifts for various temperatures and as utilized by Happer supplies the theoretical worth for the earth’s outgoing radiation at a floor temperature of 288.7 Okay (15.6 ºC, 60 ºF) if there have been no greenhouse gases to intrude with outgoing radiation. It seems as if one have been measuring it from house trying down on earth. That is proven by Happer as a blue easy curve.

Schwarzschild devised the strategy of calculating the precise absorption of outgoing radiation by totally different greenhouse gases. Happer exhibits it as a jagged curve beneath the Plank curve, overlaying the identical frequencies. The Schwarzschild curve utilized by Happer relies on calculations for the current focus of greenhouse gases. The greenhouse impact suppresses the outgoing radiation to house and is demonstrated by the distinction between the 2 curves. Observations from satellites verify the calculations.

Happer exhibits the interference for zero CO2, 400 components per million (ppm) of CO2 and 800 ppm of CO2. Eradicating CO2 can have a dramatic impact on the cooling of the earth (growing lack of warmth). Doubling CO2 to 800 ppm and even 1600 ppm can have little impact in warming the earth as a result of the rise in interference with outgoing radiation is small. The physicists outline such a situation as exists for CO2 as saturated.

Happer states that the amplification by elevated water vapor [asserted in the Charney Report (1979) and considered to be the dangerous effect of global warming] is nonsense. This water vapor amplification was carried ahead into the experiences of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC). It isn’t being noticed.

Additionally, Happer rapidly demonstrates why claims that including methane will trigger harmful warming are nonsense. Happer discusses the Courageous New Decarbonized World by citing Jonathan Swift, Gulliver’s Travels, Voyage to Laputa (1726). The proprietor of a advantageous home and farm, whereas the remainder of countryside is in ruins, explains what occurred:

“The sum of his discourse was to this impact: “That about forty years in the past, sure individuals went as much as Laputa, both upon enterprise or diversion, and, after 5 months continuance, got here again with a little or no smattering in arithmetic, however stuffed with risky spirits acquired in that ethereal area: that these individuals, upon their return, started to dislike the administration of every part beneath, and fell into schemes of placing all arts, sciences, languages, and mechanics, upon a brand new foot. To this finish, they procured a royal patent for erecting an academy of projectors in Lagado; and the humour prevailed so strongly among the many folks, that there’s not a city of any consequence within the kingdom with out such an academy. In these schools the professors contrive new guidelines and strategies of agriculture and constructing, and new devices, and instruments for all trades and manufactures; whereby, as they undertake, one man shall do the work of ten; a palace could also be in-built every week, of supplies so sturdy as to final without end with out repairing. All of the fruits of the earth shall come to maturity at no matter season we predict match to decide on, and improve a hundred-fold greater than they do at current; with innumerable different completely satisfied proposals. The one inconvenience is, that none of those initiatives are but delivered to perfection; and within the meantime, the entire nation lies miserably waste, the homes in ruins, and the folks with out meals or garments. By all which, as a substitute of being discouraged, they’re fifty occasions extra violently bent upon prosecuting their schemes, pushed equally on by hope and despair: that as for himself, being not of an enterprising spirit, he was content material to go on within the outdated types, to dwell within the homes his ancestors had constructed, and act as they did, in each a part of life, with out innovation: that some few different individuals of high quality and gentry had executed the identical, however have been appeared on with a watch of contempt and ill-will, as enemies to artwork, ignorant, and ailing common-wealth’s males, preferring their very own ease and sloth earlier than the final enchancment of their nation.”

https://www.free-ebooks.web/sci-fi-classics/Gulliver-s-Travels/html/23

After demonstrating that lots of the issues of immediately have lengthy been a part of the human situation, Happer concludes his presentation by giving causes for optimism:

  • Many peculiar People haven’t misplaced their Frequent Sense
  • Historical past exhibits that individuals get uninterested in corrupt (sanctimonious) elites and ultimately overthrow them: Cromwell’s Puritans, bloodthirsty radicals of the French Revolution, communist dictatorship of the Soviet Union, and so forth.
  • “You possibly can idiot all the folks a number of the time, and a number of the folks all the time, however not all the folks all the time.” [Abraham Lincoln]

From Happer’s presentation, it turns into evident that the present efforts by local weather modelers to calculate the growing greenhouse impact with growing carbon dioxide by estimating temperatures lots of of 1000’s or tens of millions of years in the past are nonsense. We’ve the proof immediately to make such calculations extra precisely than may be given by geological information. See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy and Altering Local weather.

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That’s Bias, Not Uncertainty: Writing in Judith Curry’s website online, Local weather And many others. Ross McKitrick explains that despite the fact that it was demonstrated nearly 15 years in the past that the fashions overestimate atmospheric temperature traits, local weather modelers proceed to overestimate the warming of the environment. Utilizing a paper by Mitchell et al. and one other by Christy and him, McKitrick states that the overestimates within the newest spherical of fashions, CMIP6, have elevated, not decreased. The prize goes to the Canadian mannequin which overestimates the warming of the troposphere (the majority environment beneath the altitude the place water freezes out) by about 7 occasions.

McKitrick concludes his dialogue with:

“I get it that modeling the local weather is extremely tough, and nobody faults the scientific group for locating it a troublesome drawback to resolve. However we’re all dwelling with the implications of local weather modelers stubbornly utilizing technology after technology of fashions that exhibit an excessive amount of floor and tropospheric warming, along with operating grossly exaggerated forcing situations (e.g. RCP8.5). Again in 2005 within the first report of the then-new US Local weather Change Science Program, Karl et al. pointed to the exaggerated warming within the tropical troposphere as a ‘doubtlessly critical inconsistency.’ However reasonably than fixing it since then, modelers have made it worse. Mitchell et al. observe that along with the mistaken warming traits themselves, the biases have broader implications as a result of ‘atmospheric circulation traits rely upon latitudinal temperature gradients.’ In different phrases when the fashions get the tropical troposphere mistaken, it drives potential errors in lots of different options of the mannequin environment. Even when the unique drawback was confined to extra warming within the tropical mid-troposphere, it has now expanded right into a extra pervasive heat bias all through the worldwide troposphere.

“If the discrepancies within the troposphere have been evenly cut up throughout fashions between extra warming and cooling, we may chalk it as much as noise and uncertainty. However that isn’t the case: it’s all extra warming. CMIP5 fashions warmed an excessive amount of over the ocean floor and an excessive amount of within the tropical troposphere. Now the CMIP6 fashions heat an excessive amount of all through the worldwide lower- and mid-troposphere. That’s bias, not uncertainty, and till the modeling group finds a technique to repair it, the economics and coverage making communities are justified in assuming future warming projections are overstated, doubtlessly by a fantastic deal relying on the mannequin. [Boldface added] See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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He’s Again! Most likely no environmentalist or economist has outraged the environmental institution, at the very least in Washington, as a lot as Bjorn Lomborg. When “The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Actual State of the World” got here out in 2001, many in Washington refused to consider it. The retiring president of the American Affiliation for the Development of Science (AAAS) spent a lot of his retiring handle condemning the e book as did articles in Scientific American, Nationwide Geographic, and so forth. The consultants for the Scientific American have been Stephen Schneider (who claimed that exaggeration is critical to be efficient in speaking to the general public (the Schneider Syndrome), John Holdren (to be President Obama’s science adviser), John Bongaarts and Thomas Lovejoy. The Economist declared about Lomborg: “As any wise particular person would count on, his information are normally fallacies and his evaluation is [sic] largely non-existent.”

The issue for the critics was, that apart from a couple of minor errors, the e book was primarily based on stable information, a lot of which he offered in simple to learn graphs. Opposite to what many readers of the opinions have been led to consider, Lomborg didn’t deny human involvement in world warming, solely the extent to which it’s going down. Lomborg referred to the in depth exaggeration as “The Litany” of doom and gloom. He demonstrated that many issues have been getting higher, significantly within the a part of the world having fun with prosperity. Prosperity can result in environmental enchancment – how surprising!

Lomborg has now written a e book addressing world warming particularly: “False Alarm: How Local weather Change Panic Prices Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Repair the Planet.” SEPP Chairman Tom Sheahen reviewed the e book and the evaluate was posted on WUWT. See hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Saving Nature? In 2007 Indur Goklany’s e book, “The Enhancing State of the World: Why We’re Dwelling Longer, More healthy, Extra snug Lives On a Cleaner Planet” was printed. In some methods this can be extra scholarly than Lomborg’s e book. It’s a thorough presentation of the bettering standing of the human situation. Properly researched, Goklany’s e book discusses the significance of technological change and financial growth.

Now, Goklany has a paper being printed in Conservation Biology, the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, titled: “Discount in world habitat loss from fossil‐gasoline‐dependent will increase in cropland productiveness.” It focuses on habitat misplaced to agricultural makes use of, which is usually thought-about to be the key trigger for world biodiversity loss. At present, about 35 to 40% of worldwide land space is in agricultural makes use of.

The paper demonstrates that: [from Goklany]

  • Over 60% of “world meals manufacturing is because of elevated agricultural productiveness from fossil-fuel-dependent applied sciences. 
  • Absent fossil fuels, at the very least one other 20% of worldwide land space must be transformed to cropland to take care of world meals manufacturing, additional threatening world biodiversity.
  • This exceeds the whole quantity of land at the moment put aside globally for conservation in a single kind or one other (15%), which some have known as the world’s biggest conservation success story (or phrases to that impact).
  • World meals provides would additionally drop, at the very least quickly, to ranges a couple of quarter beneath these skilled by the Chinese language folks throughout their final Nice Famine of 1959-61. Meals costs would skyrocket to stability provide and demand.”

Those that are anxious to ban using fossil fuels in all probability by no means thought-about its optimistic results on agriculture. Additional, calculating the “social price of carbon” is silly with out estimating the optimistic impacts of CO2 on agriculture productiveness and using fossil fuels in lowering acreages wanted for planting. See hyperlinks underneath Social Advantages of Carbon Dioxide.

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Variety of the Week: 50%: As hurricane Laura approached the Louisiana/Texas coast, some nationwide newspapers blared that the storm surge can be as much as 20 ft (6 meters), ‘unsurvivable’! It was about 11 ft (Three.four meters). Extra importantly, in accordance with native newspapers, by Aug 29, solely 12 folks died from the storm. Six (50%) from carbon monoxide poisoning from utilizing electrical turbines not correctly vented and 4 from falling bushes or limbs. After the storm, many individuals commented on what it was wish to “ride-out” the storm. This episode demonstrates the risks of continued exaggeration (the Schneider Syndrome) of climate occasions. Individuals change into insensitive to actual hazard. See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy, Measurement Points – Environment, Altering Climate, and Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Propaganda

Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019

Obtain with no cost:

Why Scientists Disagree About World Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

Obtain with no cost:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

World Sea-Degree Rise: An Analysis of the Information

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Temporary, Could 20, 2019

Difficult the Orthodoxy

Frequent Sense

Video, Will Happer, DDP 38th Annual Assembly, Aug 15, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=videoseries

Understanding Wildfires

Video, Willie Quickly, Ph.D. Docs of Catastrophe Preparedness, Aug 15, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=videoseries

New affirmation that local weather fashions overstate atmospheric warming

By Ross McKitrick, Local weather And many others. Aug 25, 2020

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