Texas “Wind was working nearly in addition to anticipated” – Half Deux – Watts Up With That?

Visitor “debunking the debunkers” by David Middleton

Setting the Stage

Why was Texas, ERCOT (Electrical Reliability Council of Texas) specifically, so unprepared for the onslaught of frigid climate? This was NOAA’s February temperature outlook map, launched on January 31, 2021:

“A reminder: the local weather outlook maps are usually not a forecast for absolutely the temperature or precipitation quantities in February. As a substitute, they’re the likelihood (p.c likelihood) that February temperatures or precipitation shall be within the higher, center, or decrease third of the climatological report (1981-2010) for February (be aware: the climatological report will shift to 1991-2020 later this 12 months).” NOAA

20 days later, this was NOAA’s map of the variety of hours under freezing for the week of Feb. 12-19, 2021:

In lower than every week, we went from an outlook for about regular February temperatures to the forecast of an ice storm after which “the worst winter climate situations seen domestically in many years (if not on report)”… Radical can be an understatement.

The primary trace I had of the strategy of Winter Storm Youthful Dryas was on Monday, February Eight. Not being hurricane season, I wasn’t paying too shut consideration to the climate. The forecast on Monday was for potential freezing rain in a single day on Wednesday… However the scary bit was a forecast of single digit low temperatures early within the week. It merely doesn’t get that chilly within the DFW space. And because the days glided by, the forecast saved getting worse.

The ice storm hit Wednesday evening and induced this on Thurday…

And it simply saved getting colder. By Sunday, February 14, it was snowing and temperatures had been 41 °F under regular…

DFW Temperatures Jan. 26 to Feb. 25, 2021

This Arctic blast was basically unprecedented…

Oklahoma Metropolis set a report for its longest straight interval of temperatures at or under 20 levels: 210 hours between Feb. 9 and 17 beat its earlier report in 1983. The temperature dipped to minus-14 levels on Feb. 16, town’s lowest since 1899.

Dallas skilled its second-longest streak of temperatures at or under freezing and at or under 20 levels, and reached its third-coldest temperature on report: minus-2 levels.

Houston, which was positioned beneath its first wind chill warning, noticed a wind chill of 1 diploma, its lowest since at the least 1990, in line with meteorologist Alex Lamers. Its excessive temperature of 25 levels was its fourth coldest on report.

Kansas Metropolis set a report for the longest stretch with temperatures at or under 15 levels, at 10 days.

Washington Submit

February 16 was truly tied for the second lowest DFW temperature on report.

Coldest temp in over 70 years and the 2nd coldest temp ever recorded within the D-FW space
On Feb. 16 the temperature dropped to -2°.

This ties the 2nd coldest temp ever recorded.

On Jan. 31, 1949 the temperature additionally dropped to -2°.

The one time it has been colder was -Eight° again on February 12, 1899.

three days in a row of report lows
Feb. 14, 15, and 16 all noticed report low temps.

Feb. 14 the low was 9°, which shattered the previous report of 15° set in 1936.

Feb. 15 the low was four°, which shattered the previous report of 15° set in 1909.

Feb. 16 the low was -2°, which shattered the previous report of 12° set in 1903.

three days of report chilly excessive temperatures
From Feb. 14 to 16, all three days noticed report chilly excessive temperatures.

This implies the afternoon was the coldest on that date that’s ever been noticed.

Feb. 14 the excessive was 22°. This breaks the previous report of 27° set in 1951.

Feb. 15 the excessive was 14°, which shattered the previous report of 31° set in 1909.

Feb. 16 the excessive was 18°, which breaks the previous report of 21° set in 1903.

WFAA

It additionally fairly properly knocked out most of Texas wind energy manufacturing… as a result of Texas doesn’t winterize their wind generators… Proper?

Debunking the debunkers

Truth Examine: Do Wind Generators Actually Fail in Chilly Climate?
It’s time to debunk the rumors.

By  Brad Bergan

Feb 17, 2021

Disaster breeds confusion and the current string of record-low temperatures amid this week’s chilly and frosty climate situations in Texas are not any exception. However when the state’s energy grid fell in need of vitality calls for, misinformation unfold like wildfire — arguing that frozen wind generators are responsible for the blackout.

Nevertheless, wind turbine installations don’t go up with out substantial funding — which suggests planning for the sort of unstable climate a lot of the world is already seeing for the primary time. The query is raised, then: Can wind generators actually fail in chilly climate?

Wind generators in chilly environments usually ‘winterized’
Misinformation sparked when a picture displaying an Alpine helicopter de-icing wind generators coated in frost or ice surfaced on social media. The implication was that frozen wind generators had been the reason for Texas’ collection of energy outages.

[…]

Attention-grabbing Engineering

Truth Examine: “picture displaying an Alpine helicopter de-icing wind generators coated in frost or ice” is a “meme“… Debunking a meme is like debunking The Onion or The Babylon Bee. The declare that “the implication was that frozen wind generators had been the reason for Texas’ collection of energy outages” is rated as moronic.

The attention-grabbing engineer went on to state that helicopter-assisted wind generators are higher for the local weather than coal-fired energy vegetation.

In reality, carbon emissions generated from de-icing a turbine — like within the Alpine Helicopter video and picture — saves two days’ value of emissions, relative to coal energy. 

Attention-grabbing Engineering

This can be true… Nevertheless it’s not more likely to be of a lot consolation to the four.5 million Texans who misplaced energy in the course of the record-shattering chilly stretch.

Whereas I’ve little question that wind generators are winterized in very chilly locations the place fossil fuels and nuclear energy have been successfully outlawed, Texas isn’t a kind of kind of locations. So… If Texas (ERCOT) wind generators failed as a result of they weren’t correctly winterized, then the opposite grids hammered by Winter Storm Youthful Dryas will need to have fared higher… Proper?

The Southwest Energy Pool (SWPP) and Midcontinent Impartial System Operator (MISO) lengthen from Texas to the Canadian border.

Their wind energy output did what ERCOT’s did… It failed.

Electrical energy era from wind for ERCOT, SWPP and MISO

Right here’s a humorous, possibly coincidental, correlation:

ERCOT wind energy era vs departure from regular DFW temperature from Jan. 26, 2021 to Feb. 25, 2021

Observe that the correlation is simply pretty much as good when temperatures are above freezing. Why use DFW temperatures?

  1. I dwell in Dallas and I keep in mind 1983 and 2011.
  2. The Dallas-Fort Value (DFW) space was the primary main metropolitan space within the ERCOT grid to be hammered.
  3. The North Central Texas area had the best electrical energy demand in the ERCOT grid.

Why had been ERCOT and Texas hit so exhausting?

Why weren’t energy outages almost as dangerous within the SWPP and MISO grids? It’d simply have one thing to do with coal.

SWPP
MISO
ERCOT
Electrical energy era from coal for ERCOT, SWPP and MISO

However, the gasoline supply receiving many of the blame from the lamestream media, outperformed the neighboring grids by a large margin.

Electrical energy era from pure gasoline for ERCOT, SWPP and MISO

The “failure” was the drop-off from 900,000 MWh/d on February 14 to 700,000 MWh/d on February 16. At the moment, the reasons for this are anecdotal. Hopefully, the multitude of investigations will produce at the least one dispassionate rationalization for what went incorrect and learn how to stop it from occurring once more.

Let’s Make Orwell Fiction Once more!

[W]hile frozen wind generators have contributed to the state’s vitality disaster, that kind of vitality has solely barely underperformed in opposition to printed expectations for winter output.

NBC Information

Wind usually accounts for 20-25% of ERCOT’s winter era. Winter, significantly February, is definitely an excellent wind season. In response to the EIA, in February 2019 wind achieved a 41% capability think about Texas. ERCOT information point out a 31% capability think about February 2019. Up till February Eight, wind was exceeding expectations… Then the underside dropped out for 10 days.

ERCOT wind capability issue and DFW temperatures.

Wind’s failure occurred a full week earlier than the ability outages… When 25% of your workforce doesn’t present up for the sport, the phrase “solely barely underperformed” is, on the very least, Orwellian.

Pure gasoline, the state’s dominant vitality supply, has supplied drastically much less vitality than anticipated, in line with specialists and business information.

NBC Information

That is akin to saying that the Avengers carried out drastically much less properly than expectations in opposition to Thanos in Infinity Struggle.

Pure gasoline capability issue and DFW temperatures.

About 60% of Texas pure gasoline era consists of mixed cycle (CC) energy vegetation, which might exceed 80% capability elements. Fuel generators and different combustion turbines can ramp up and down rapidly, however have low capability elements. From Feb. 7-12, pure gasoline ramped up 10-20% to >60% and was working prefer it usually does in August.

Expertise Time adjusted capability (MW) % Ann Jan Feb Mar Apr Might Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Capability Elements
Pure Fuel – CC 41,095.7 60% 56.four 52.7 46.Eight 44.6 41.four 54.2 65.four 71.6 75.9 69.three 51.1 49.2 53.four
Pure Fuel – GT 9,689.5 14% 33.Eight 31.9 29.2 28.6 28.zero 32.7 35.9 40.5 42.9 38.7 32.Eight 31.three 33.zero
Pure Fuel – IC 908.5 1% 19.7 15.5 16.1 17.2 16.three 19.6 20.three 25.1 29.zero 26.5 18.7 18.5 13.9
Pure Fuel – ST 17,096.7 25% 14.Eight 6.Eight 6.zero Eight.Eight Eight.four 13.2 18.three 24.6 34.Eight 24.four 15.four Eight.5 7.Eight
EIA Texas Electrical energy Profile 2019

Whereas pure gasoline era ought to have been in a position to maintain at a 60% capability issue from Feb. 14-18, it clearly outperformed what is generally anticipated for this time of 12 months.

Each a part of the ERCOT system failed to a point from Feb. 15-17.

ERCOT winter capability and capability issue by gasoline kind (EIA Hourly Grid Monitor and S&P International Market Intelligence).

The narrative has been that conservatives have unfairly blamed the ability failure on wind energy to be able to prop up fossil fuels. The narrative is a straw man.

No, Wind Farms Aren’t the Major Reason behind the Texas Blackouts
The state’s widespread electrical energy failure was largely brought on by freezing pure gasoline pipelines. That didn’t cease advocates for fossil fuels from making an attempt to shift blame.

By Dionne Searcey
Feb. 17, 2021
As his state was racked by an electrical energy disaster that left hundreds of thousands of individuals with out warmth in frigid temperatures, the governor of Texas took to tv to begin inserting blame.

His primary goal was renewable vitality, suggesting that the systemwide collapse was brought on by the failure of wind and solar energy.

“It simply reveals that fossil gasoline is important for the state of Texas in addition to different states to verify we can warmth our properties within the winter instances and funky our properties in the summertime instances,” stated Gov. Greg Abbott, talking on Sean Hannity’s present on Fox Information. Different conservative talk-show hosts had already picked up the theme.

[…]

New York Instances

Nothing in Gov. Abbott’s assertion is fake or deceptive. Whereas there have been failures throughout the system, wind and photo voltaic failed nearly completely every week earlier than pure gasoline, coal and nuclear skilled their issues. On the coldest day since 1899, fossil fuels accounted for 83% of ERCOT’s electrical energy era. Fossil fuels + nuclear accounted for 92%.

Orwellian efforts to exonerate wind & photo voltaic and place the blame on pure gasoline, coal and nuclear energy are merely… Orwellian. Claiming that it is a “get up name” for the USA to additional degrade our vitality infrastructure, as a result of local weather change is Orwellian on LSD and steroids…

White Home local weather czar to AP: Texas storm ‘a wake-up name’
The Related Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — The lethal winter storm that induced widespread energy outages in Texas and different states is a “wake-up name” for the USA to construct vitality methods and different infrastructure which are extra dependable and resilient within the face of extreme-weather occasions linked to local weather change, President Joe Biden’s nationwide local weather adviser says.

[…]

“We’re going to push the clear vitality, we’re going to push for higher vehicles, however it’s additionally going to be about capturing the need of the general public to truly face the challenges we’re dealing with right now and meet them in a approach that’s going to be useful to them,″ she stated.

For instance, Biden’s plans to offer 500,000 charging stations for electrical vehicles and put money into battery expertise are meant to make it simpler for the general public to take part in a clean-energy financial system. “If we will decrease that price, and all people is aware of they will get the place they should go when they should get there” in an electrical automotive, “we’ll get the sort of demand on the auto-sector aspect that we’d like,″ she stated.

Equally, if utilities are given the proper incentives, they will meet Biden’s aim to have net-zero carbon emissions by 2035, McCarthy stated. The top of a lobbying group for electrical utilities stated earlier this month that the 2035 date can be “an extremely troublesome scenario to deal with” for many U.S. suppliers.

[…]

Related Press

Clearly, if the grid was devoid of pure gasoline & coal era, extra wind & photo voltaic era, ERCOT was related to SWPP & MISO (it already is related to SWPP and Mexico) and we had 500,000 extra EV charging stations… What? Winter Storm Youthful Dryas wouldn’t have occurred? The ability failures wouldn’t have been so dangerous?

It’s time to make Orwell fiction once more… MOFA!

Who, what, when, the place and why?

No matter occurred to the 5 W’s? At this level we solely know what, when and the place. But, nearly the entire lamestream media are distorting the what and reporting conclusions about who and why based mostly on anecdotal info and “skilled” opinions.

We received’t know the “why” till we all know precisely what failed:

  • Wind
    • Ice on blades?
    • Frozen generators?
    • Poor wind situations?
    • Poor chilly climate efficiency usually?
  • Pure gasoline
    • Frozen wellheads and broken separators?
    • Shut in manufacturing to keep away from frozen wellheads and broken separators?
    • Frozen pipeline management valves and/or hydrate plugging?
    • Low line stress as a result of extra demand for heating and electrical energy?
    • Compressors knocked offline by energy outages?
    • Frozen pipes in energy plant cooling methods?
    • Energy vegetation offline for upkeep in low demand season?
  • Coal
    • Frozen pipes in energy plant cooling methods?
    • Frozen boilers?
    • Ice coated coal stacks?
    • Emissions restrictions?
    • Energy vegetation offline for upkeep in low demand season?

We received’t know the “who” till we all know the “why”.

Even worse, the politicians have already claimed to know what the options are. And in nearly each case, the media and politicians are specializing in what they suppose ought to have been performed in a different way over the previous 20-50 years, somewhat than on what may have been performed in a different way over the previous 20-30 days, significantly what may have been performed in a different way from February 5-14, 2021.

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