Survey Outcomes: The place Are All of the Sick Folks?

Survey Outcomes and Opinion by Kip Hansen – 21 November 2020

The “The place Are All of the Sick Folks?” survey has had almost 3000 members since its inception at 10 a.m. EST.  Three questions have been posed to light up the difficulty of the consequences of the SARS-CoV-2, which is inflicting the present Covid-19 Pandemic, on the readers of this weblog, WUWT. 

The readers listed below are a various, eclectic, multinational cohort.  A very unscientific cross-section of most people.  My expertise in responding to hundreds an hundreds of feedback through the years – feedback in response to my essays on a reasonably broad number of matters – has satisfied me that readership right here has a broad vary of professional and occupational backgrounds.  I’ve discovered it attention-grabbing and stunning – I write about bugs and an entomologist weighs-in in feedback.  I write about canine and veterinarians weigh-in in feedback.   I write nuclear energy – nuclear energy technicians weigh-in. 

Please don’t suppose that this survey is supposed to be a broad sociological research of Covid-19 and the varied governmental responses to the pandemic.  It’s nothing greater than a snapshot of precise expertise of the readers right here who’ve taken the few moments essential to go to the web survey and reply the three questions. 

I hoped for 3 thousand members earlier than writing up the outcomes, however the response percentages haven’t shifted since about participant 1000 – which is an effective indicator that the snapshot is no less than “in focus”. 

SURVEY RESULTS (with 2851 responses)

Query #1:    “How many individuals amongst your instant household, prolonged household, associates, acquaintances and colleagues are CURRENTLY sick (in poor health sufficient to voluntarily keep residence from work, faculty, or regular actions) with Covid-19?”

A robust majority of individuals, 85.eight%, know nobody who’s at the moment in poor health with Covid-19.   Some folks know some sick folks:  13.5%.  There have been complaints within the feedback that utilizing a spread like “1-5” prevents us realizing that many individuals deciding on 1-5 know just one sick particular person – a sound criticism.  How many individuals know many sick folks?  O.66%  (19 of 2851) know 6 or extra.  Feedback reveal that there are some nurses and medical doctors and nursing residence employees answering the survey, which can account for a few of these response with greater numbers.

Query #2:    “How many individuals amongst your instant household, prolonged household, associates, acquaintances and colleagues have been sick (in poor health sufficient to voluntarily keep residence from work, faculty, or regular actions) with Covid-19 over the past 9 months?”

Because the starting of the pandemic, characterised as “the final 9 months”, a majority of individuals, 54.four%, know nobody who has been in poor health with Covid-19.  Once more, some folks know some-but-not-many (1-5) individuals who have been in poor health – 39.5%. That’s about four-out-of-ten have had somebody of their circle of household, associates and acquaintances change into in poor health with Covid-19.  In whole, 93.9% who know both none or only some (lower than 5) individuals who have truly been in poor health throughout your entire pandemic to this point.   Nonetheless, 6.1% know “various” (6-10) or “many” (11 or extra) which have been in poor health.   How in poor health?  We don’t know.  A extra full survey may need requested further questions, like “What number of of these have been in poor health sufficient to require hospitalization?”

Query #Three:   “Covid-19 has triggered many deaths, notably, however not completely, among the many older inhabitants and people already in poor health with critical circumstances. What number of of those deaths have occurred amongst your instant household, prolonged household, associates, acquaintances and colleagues for the reason that starting of the pandemic in January 2020?”

Because the query itself acknowledges, Covid-19  has triggered or contributed to lots of deaths all over the world.  Extra deaths than a mean annual influenza pandemic, much less deaths – to this point – than the worst of the influenza pandemics — Nice Influenza Pandemic of 1918 which reportedly killed between 50 and 100 million folks out of a world inhabitants of 1.eight billion.  As we speak’s inhabitants is about 4 instances that — 7.eight billion.  A pandemic that lethal immediately would kill 200 to 400 million folks. As of immediately, Covid-19 is reported to have contributed to the deaths of about 1.37 million people.  (for extra on “contributed to”, learn my upcoming essay on Reason for Dying).

Our survey reveals, that amongst survey respondents, an enormous majority, 88.four%, know nobody of their circle of household, associates, acquaintances or colleagues which have died from or with Covid-19, since January 2020 – the earliest doable date for the pandemic in the US and Europe.  Sadly, some readers, 327 of them, have suffered losses of no less than member of the family, buddy or colleague.  My condolences exit to them, every one.  Solely three (Three) respondents report a spread of upper than 5 – two report 6-10, and one stories >20.  (This “>20 deaths” response got here in very early within the survey, and could also be a troll attempting to spoil the survey – or it could be a legit response from somebody within the medical or nursing residence area.)

Dialogue:

These of your who know nobody who’s at the moment in poor health with Covid-19 are not loopy and not terminally remoted from society.  That’s the expertise of over 85% of others studying right here and taking part on this survey.  So, you aren’t alone.   I might interpret >85% as “most everybody”.  But, greater than one-out-of-ten (13.four%) do know a number of (as much as 5) people who find themselves sick proper now.  Feedback point out that many of those people know just one.  I do want that I had created extra classes within the decrease vary, corresponding to 1, 2, Three four & 5. 

Nonetheless, the outcome for the primary query – “know any folks at the moment in poor health?” — is that most individuals don’t know anybody or simply know just a few.   Readers ought to evaluate this to any of the very unhealthy current flu seasons, attempting to recollect once we all knew many individuals in poor health with the flu concurrently.  Listed here are figures for the final three flu seasons in the US:

2017-2018  45,000,000 Symptomatic Diseases

2018-2019  36,000,000  Symptomatic Diseases

2019-2020  38,000,000  Symptomatic Diseases

These flu seasons noticed large office absenteeism, faculty closures (principally resulting from too many academics out with the flu), hospital ERs overrun with flu sufferers and a media pouring out Flu Panic.  The numbers above are Symptomatic Diseases – individuals who have been truly sick – unable to go to high school, work, or do their each day actions.  For essentially the most half, they have been merely depressing for days – some died.  These of you with sharp recollections will bear in mind these years and a few of you’ll recall your personal bouts of influenza. 

We should always not evaluate these numbers with what’s being reported immediately as “Covid-19 Instances” — these will not be sick folks however merely individuals who have examined “optimistic” for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments of their nasal swabs.  “Optimistic Check” doesn’t imply an infection.  The present requirements of the RT-PCR take a look at are method too delicate to supply “actionable” outcomes and don’t return positives that point out a present ongoing an infection and nothing even resembling a “Symptomatic Sickness”.   Based on the World Well being Group the overwhelming majority of Covid-19 infections are asymptomatic– which simply means “not sick”.

The Public Well being viewpoint is that a “optimistic take a look at” may imply “an infection” and “if an infection then possibly infectious, now or later”.   Most testing finished immediately doesn’t take a look at for the one factor well being officers must know to guard the inhabitants:  “Who has an infectious case of Covid-19?”  Public Well being viewpoints trigger authorities to do silly issues – corresponding to closing a complete faculty as a result of 5 pupils – pupils not sick and at college – “examined optimistic” – and ordering a “deep cleansing” of the varsity earlier than pupils can return. 

And there have been sick folks —  whereas a majority of respondents (54.four%) don’t know even a single one who has had Covid-19 within the final 9 months, the rest of respondents,  45.6%, know no less than one one who was sick.  From the feedback, lots of the early circumstances may have merely been the any one of many influenzas – testing was not rampant in Jan-Feb-Mar.  There may be some proof that the present ramp up of “Covid Instances” may embrace the brand new flu season’s Influenza Instances.  Influenza season typically begins the primary of October, we are actually midway by way of November – six weeks into flu season. 

And sadly, many individuals have died in within the Covid-19 Pandemic.  Most of us, virtually 9-of-10, know nobody who has died.  However the different 1-of-10 have misplaced a member of the family, a buddy, an acquaintance or a colleague.  It’s suspected that susceptibility to critical, life-threatening, extreme sickness involving SARS-CoV-2 has a genetic foundation.  This will likely imply that households struggling deaths of family members could expertise a number of deaths – because the household shares genetic materials.  Everybody has been uncovered to the concept that the danger of extreme Cocid-`9 sickness and demise entails, virtually invariably,  a listing of frequent comorbidities:

“Adults of any age with the next circumstances are at elevated threat of extreme sickness from the virus that causes COVID-19:

Supply:  CDC right here

The truth is, any situation that weakens the immune system or cardiovascular system or the pulmonary system locations one at greater threat of creating a extreme sickness from SARS-CoV-2 than these with out these circumstances. 

A word on “Covid-19 Deaths”:  The CDC has requested that every one demise certificates [link is a .pdf] that record Covid-19 and even suspected Covid-19 anyplace, in any portion, of the Reason for Dying portion of a demise certificates be reported as a Covid-19 Dying.  Because of this the mortality figures are reported far greater than they need to be as a way to be launched for public consumption with out critical caveats. (There are legitimate epidemiological causes for this requirement –  responsibly informing most people concerning the Covid Pandemic is just not considered one of them.)  They’re reporting all deaths that in any method contain Covid-19 or seem like they could contain Covid-19 or is likely to be suspected of involving Covid-19 as a “Covid-19 Dying.”   That’s the topic for one more essay – savvy readers can verify this for themselves. 

The GIANT omission on the record from the CDC, identified virtually from the primary month of the pandemic, is that this:   The older you might be, the upper your threat of dying from Covid-19 if contaminated.  Individual aged 80 or higher had almost a 1-in-Three likelihood of dying if they’d a Covid-19 an infection. These 70-79 had a 1-in-6 likelihood of dying, and people 60-69 a 1-in-16 likelihood.   We will have a look at this one other method. Proportion of all Covid-19 deaths by age group.

Over 85% of all Covid-19 deaths occurred in these over 65 years of age.   Advancing age itself is a significant threat issue for demise by Covid.

The subsequent chart is Charge Ratio (akin to Threat Ratio) of Covid Dying by age group in comparison with younger adults aged 18 by way of 29.

Ethical to this story?  Don’t get previous?  Effectively, not likely – however we must always have been defending our ageing inhabitants, these 65 and older, from the very begin – all whereas protecting our economies and societies functioning full-blast in order that governments in any respect ranges may afford to take the steps essential to guard the aged.  Wise tips for his or her safety ought to have been the primary order of enterprise accompanied by plans to securely serve the aged in nursing properties.

BOTTOM LINES:

  1. If you happen to don’t know any folks sick with/from Covid-19 you having the identical Covid-19 expertise because the overwhelming majority of different folks – no less than in keeping with this considerably unscientific survey.
  2. If you happen to don’t know anybody who has died, or just one or possibly two, you might be once more having the identical expertise as virtually everybody else.
  3. Whereas most of us don’t know anybody who has died from/with Covid-19, we in all probability know somebody who does know somebody who has sadly misplaced a member of the family or acquaintance through the ongoing pandemic.
  4. Opinions differ wildly with regards to Governmental Responses to the pandemic.  Will probably be years earlier than the historians, sociologists, medial researchers, and others type out the quagmire of errors which have been made in any respect ranges of governance.

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Writer’s Remark:

This survey was only a fast peek on the real-world expertise of the readers right here.  I’ve not fooled myself into considering that it tells the total reality about Covid diseases or Covid deaths.  It does inform us one thing attention-grabbing – however what is as much as the readers.  

Bias Alert:  Each my spouse and I fall into essentially the most susceptible class by age.  However we even have youngsters and grandchildren – and they’re extra essential to us than ourselves. 

Let me hear from you within the feedback.

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