Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Local weather And so forth.
Posted on February eight, 2021 by curryja
by Judith Curry
Spatial Necessities of Wind/Photo voltaic and Nuclear Vitality and Their Respective Prices
“Along with the vitality sector, the local weather debate additionally wants a transition. From ideology and wishful pondering, to info, figures and rationality.”
An necessary doc was printed final week, a collaborative instigated by two members of the European Parliament – one from the Netherlands and the opposite from Czechoslovakia. One of many editors on the ensuing report is Lucas Bergkamp, who has written a number of visitor posts at Local weather And so forth.
The examine is now out there for obtain on the web site www.roadtoclimateneutrality.eu.
This doc gives a important actuality verify on the push to exchange fossil fuels with renewable vitality.
Local weather examine advises EU to embark on a “Nuclear Renaissance” program
A brand new examine on EU local weather coverage finds that it’s virtually not possible to generate ample vitality with wind and photo voltaic vitality as there’s not sufficient out there land to cowl all electrical energy demand. The examine, titled ’Highway to EU Local weather Neutrality by 2050’ advises the EU to embark on a “Nuclear Renaissance” programme in attempting to attain its local weather goals.
The EU has endorsed the formidable goal of attaining local weather neutrality (i.e. internet zero greenhouse gasoline carbon emissions) by 2050. An vitality transition away from fossil fuels is important to attain this goal. The ECR and the Renew group of the European Parliament have commissioned an unbiased examine into the spatial necessities of wind/photo voltaic versus nuclear vitality and their respective prices. A group of consultants got here to the conclusion that it’s virtually not possible to offer sufficient vitality with renewables.
The examine features a case examine performed for 2 EU member states: The Netherlands, a rustic alongside the North Sea with ample wind, and the Czech Republic, a landlocked nation with no entry to sea and a geographical more difficult panorama. In real looking eventualities, there’s not sufficient land to fulfill all energy demand if the Czech Republic and The Netherlands had been to rely solely or predominantly on wind and solar energy.
The examine, initiated by Dutch MEP Rob Roos and Czech MEP Ondřej Knotek and peer-reviewed partly by, amongst different revered scientists, Nobel Prize-winning economist William Nordhaus, finds that nuclear vitality can be cheaper than renewables. Even when taken into consideration main effectivity enhancements in photo voltaic and wind farms, nuclear vitality will stay the cheaper possibility in 2050. On this comparability, the large prices for adapting the electrical energy grid, corresponding to connecting wind generators at sea or photo voltaic parks on land, will not be even included. That price ticket can be invariably decrease for nuclear vitality.
“We discovered it outstanding that – in transitioning away from fossil fuels – the EU made a coverage choice in favour of renewable vitality with out contemplating the relative execs and cons of all carbon-neutral applied sciences”, each MEPs acknowledged.
Mr Roos: “Nuclear vitality is at all times out there, cheaper and saves the panorama. Furthermore, additional analysis into, for instance, the thorium molten salt reactor affords huge alternatives for our export place. Let’s make investments our tax cash in that. ”
In the meanwhile, solar and wind vitality are being pushed and nuclear vitality is being held again. The examine comprises a number of coverage suggestions for the European Fee to alter its method.
Mr Knotek: “The EU is nicely invited to create a technology-neutral degree taking part in subject for decarbonized energy era applied sciences. To this finish, the EU ought to undertake a ‘Nuclear Renaissance’ program that locations nuclear vitality on equal footing with renewable vitality. The EU insurance policies at present are discriminative on the subject of nuclear vitality. It’s time for all coverage makers to dwell as much as the EU precept of technological neutrality”
The examine additionally concluded that EU 2050 local weather neutrality, if achieved, will possible trigger solely a really small lower within the common international atmospheric temperature improve, estimated at between zero.05°C and zero.15°C in 2100, and not more than between zero.02°C and zero.06°C in 2050, assuming no carbon leakage happens. Electrical energy-generating applied sciences due to this fact ought to be evaluated for the diploma to which they represent ‘no regrets’ options.
Excerpts from Government Abstract
This report presents a abstract of the outcomes of a study1 that examines three points which might be key to the EU local weather neutrality’s ambition:
i. The impact of EU local weather neutrality on the common international atmospheric temperature by 2050 and 2100;
ii. The spatial (land and sea) necessities for wind and photo voltaic vitality versus nuclear vitality within the Czech Republic and The Netherlands; and
iii. The price of wind/photo voltaic vitality and of nuclear vitality for these two international locations.
In fact, it might have been preferable had the European Fee itself performed a complete price/profit evaluation of
various coverage choices out there to pursue the EU’s local weather neutrality goal. The truth that no such evaluation has been carried out, regardless of the European Fee’s ‘Higher Regulation,’ highlights the robust political forces and sense of urgency behind EU local weather policy-making.5
In mild of the spatial and financial penalties of renewable vitality relative to nuclear vitality, the EU is nicely suggested to contemplate a “Nuclear Renaissance” program. Below this program, the EU would create a degree taking part in subject for all electrical energy era applied sciences.
The EU’s 2050 local weather neutrality technique entails a excessive threat of ineffectiveness. The anticipated vitality transition, nevertheless, can hedge towards this threat by deploying ‘no regrets’ options which might be immune to climate-related ineffectiveness. Nuclear energy is such an answer.
As well as, with respect to each spatial necessities (space of land required) and prices of electrical energy, nuclear energy affords substantial benefits over renewable energy (any mixture of wind and photo voltaic). The fee benefit of nuclear energy will increase as soon as system prices are added to the equation, and will increase additional with increased penetration charges of wind and photo voltaic.
These benefits have been acknowledged within the Czech Republic, however not (but) by coverage makers on the EU degree and in The Netherlands.