EPA Updates Its “Local weather Change Indicators” – Watts Up With That?


/ Francis Menton

It seems that a while final month the EPA supplied a significant replace of what it calls its “local weather change indicators.” The EPA’s net web page for that is headed “Local weather Change Indicators in the US,” with the sub-heading “Local weather Change Is Occurring Now.” The replace is an initiative of the Biden administration, now keen to speculate a couple of trillion dollars of your cash in new “inexperienced” infrastructure, after a number of years through which the Trump EPA paid no consideration to maintaining these knowledge updated. The New York Instances stories on the massive replace on at the moment’s entrance web page, underneath the headline “Local weather Change Is getting Worse, E.P.A. Says. Simply Look Round.”

The essential approach right here is to propagandize you with each kind of basically irrelevant anecdotal data, whereas diverting your consideration away from the one indicator of “local weather change” that really counts, which is temperature. In any case, if temperatures aren’t going up, it isn’t “world warming.” Right here, now we have some 54 supposed local weather “indicators” — every thing from rain to drought to ice to sea degree — out of which the issues referring to precise temperature are solely a handful, after which are buried deep within the midst of all of the others, in all probability within the hope that you’ll miss them. And furthermore, the temperature knowledge are then grossly misrepresented in what must be an intentional effort at deception.

However let’s begin with the official line from the brand new Biden EPA.

The Earth’s local weather is altering. Temperatures are rising, snow and rainfall patterns are shifting, and extra excessive local weather occasions – like heavy rainstorms and file excessive temperatures – are already taking place. Many of those noticed modifications are linked to the rising ranges of carbon dioxide and different greenhouse gases in our ambiance, brought on by human actions.

The Instances then picks up on the theme by its headline calling so that you can “simply go searching” to find out that “local weather change” is occurring. The thought is that you would be able to decide that there’s “local weather change” by observing ice on ponds, or one thing, with out having to hassle with these sophisticated thermometers, not to mention subtle satellite tv for pc measurements:

Wildfires are greater, and beginning earlier within the yr. Warmth waves are extra frequent. Seas are hotter, and flooding is extra frequent. The air is getting hotter. Even ragweed pollen season is starting sooner. . . . [EPA’s indicators] map every thing from Lyme illness, which is rising extra prevalent in some states as a warming local weather expands the areas the place deer ticks can survive, to the rising drought within the Southwest that threatens the supply of consuming water, will increase the probability of wildfires but in addition reduces the power to generate electrical energy from hydropower.

So how concerning the temperature guys? As you may see, the Instances does throw in a few references to “warmth waves” and “hotter air” within the midst of all of the stuff about flooding, ragweed pollen, ticks, and no matter else. What’s lacking is any quotation or hyperlink to any supply to help the assertion about precise temperatures. However over on the EPA web page, underneath the heading “U.S. and World Temperature,” we discover the next graph, which is alleged to have been up to date to April 2021:

EPA temperature graph.png

That seems relatively scary! The whole lot seems like it’s going up sharply with passing time. Take a look at particularly the inexperienced line, which is recognized because the “decrease troposphere [temperatures] (measured by satellite tv for pc) of UAH.” The inexperienced line ends with a steep uptick, leaving it with the newest knowledge level slightly below a file reached in 2016, and a full 2 deg F above the 1901-2000 common.

Oh, however right here is the precise decrease troposphere temperature file from UAH, out there on the web site of Roy Spencer, who’s the man who compiles the UAH file:


There are a couple of variations within the presentation that require slightly interpretation, just like the EPA graph is in deg F and has anomalies from a 1901-2000 imply, whereas the UAH graph is in deg C and exhibits anomalies from a 1991-2020 imply. However nonetheless, it leaps out that the inexperienced line on EPA’s net web page, mentioned to be the UAH file, ends with a pointy uptick and with the final level a full 2 deg F above the imply line; whereas this file, from UAH itself, ends with a pointy downtick and the final level truly beneath the imply line. Though EPA explicitly says on its net web page that it up to date the knowledge in April 2021, this downtick within the UAH file started in January 2020 — a yr and four plus months in the past — and displays a decline in decrease troposphere temperatures of some zero.65 deg C, which is nearly 1.2 deg F.

In different phrases, effectively greater than half of the seemingly scary improve in temperature since 1901 proven within the EPA graph has simply gone away within the final 16 months. So the Biden EPA, not eager to complicate the official story of “local weather change is occurring now,” merely truncated the information in its graph at January 2020 to close out the final yr plus of huge temperature declines. There isn’t a option to characterize the EPA graph as aside from deliberately misleading.

The complete put up is offered right here.

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